What the Future Holds

Last year I read a book called "Now, Discover Your Strengths" (by Marcus Buckingham). Together with the book there is an online assessment tool that finds your top 5 strengths. It turns out that my first strength is Strategic. In the results report Strategic Strength is explained as follows:

"The Strategic theme enables you to sort through the clutter and find the best route. It is not a skill that can be taught. It is a distinct way of thinking, a special perspective on the world at large. This perspective allows you to see patterns where others simply see complexity"

Now, I don't pretend to be a visionary extraordinaire or a Warren Buffet. But, sometimes (only some, few times) I am able to recognize future patterns, based on past events, where others don't see it as clear. I call this exercise "Connecting the Dots" after the beautiful Stanford Commencement speech of Steve Jobs (I strongly recommend watching it, if you have not seen it yet - click here)

OK, after this long disclaimer let's get into the main subject of this week: THE FUTURE.

Dot #1: Last month my sister sent me the link to this website called The Story of Stuff (http://www.storyofstuff.com/). Even though I don’t subscribe to ALL the content in the video (which is a bit long, but interesting), I found it very illuminating.

Dot #2: I went to Europe this summer and observed some key differences between them and the US in consumption habits. The Europeans are more moderate than their counterparts in the US. They drive smaller cars, restaurant portions are smaller, live in smaller houses or apartments, etc. If you ask for a glass with ice in Europe they bring you a glass a quarter full of ice; whereas here in the US the glass almost always is 100% full of ice and the glass itself is probably bigger (not to mention the "free refill").

Dot #3: The markets collapsed last week. The economy is facing a terrible crisis and even the very core of capitalism is being tested.

Dot #4: In several magazine and newspaper articles that I have read, as well as in many lectures that I have attended about the Environmental impact of the human activity, I have heard the following hypothesis: “If we don’t correct the damage we are causing the earth today. Then we will cause a major irreversible damage to the earth with unimaginable consequences”. Furthermore, we need to correct at a much higher pace than the pace of damage, because we are increasing pollution and natural resources consumption at an exponential rate and therefore we need to “catch-up” with the exponential curve in order to reverse its effects.

What is the connection between these dots? In my opinion we are about to enter into a new era. It is not something that is going to be announced and recognized right away, it may be a very subtle transition that will take several years. But the end result will be a major shift in consumption patterns.

Let me explain further (before you call me a nut job!).

The Story of Stuff tries to explain the mentality of the capitalist model we have working right now (both in Europe and in the US). True, it is analyzed from the environmentalist perspective and it may have some arguments that are inaccurate. But the fact of the matter is that we have been living in a “consumption based system” where inventory rotation is important and companies are valued based on sales volume (and not on product durability).

The comparison with Europe is important because it shows that we can live with less. I am not saying we SHOULD live with less, but, I am saying that: IF WE ARE UNABLE TO PRODUCE LESS THEN WE CAN SUBSIST.

Dot #3 about the economy is what gives me the impression we WILL need to learn to live with less than we have right now.

And, finally, the last dot in this line. The #4 about correcting the damage to the earth is what makes the line split in two. This hypothesis, if it holds true, may mean that we have two possible outcomes: (1) We will either reach the critical point of “undoing” the damage we have caused Earth, or (2) we will irreversibly damage our environment and therefore damage ourselves (I will let you use your imagination to visualize what this means).

So, in conclusion the new era we are entering into will be one of redefining the way the system works (it could be based less on consumption and more on basic needs). It will be an era of changes in our “standards”, where some of the things we take for granted today (like a glass full of ice) will no longer be. It will also be an era of financial shift, the value of things will change, perhaps a diamond will no longer be as precious and expensive, and water will no longer cost less than wine. And perhaps, it will be an era of becoming more conscious of our Spaceship called Earth, and what its needs are and what do we need to do to keep it in working order.

I CERTAINLY DON’T HAVE THE CRYSTAL BALL THAT TELLS THE FUTURE, BUT I HOPE YOU ENJOYED THIS MIND EXERCISE AS MUCH AS I DID.

Until next week (when I will hopefully be a Dad for the 3^rd time), Shalom!